I just watched the Utah Jazz close out the Houston Rockets, with extreme prejudice (as they say in the CIA), in Game 6 of their first-round series, 113-91.
And now things get difficult — very — for the Lakers.
The Denver Nuggets were a test, in theory. But not in reality. They were over the tattoo threshold (see earlier entry on this blog) and didn’t have the cohesion or mental toughness to pose a real threat. They all but melted down in the Lakers’ four-game sweep, making the Lakers look better than they are.
The Jazz will not do that. Neither will the Spurs or Hornets in the next round. Nor the Eastern Conference champion (and I still think it will be the Celtics) in the Finals.
One name represents how big a threat the Jazz is to the Lakers:
Deron Williams.
Williams came into the league at the same time as did Chris Paul (Nos. 3-4 in the first round of the 2005 draft), and until the past few months the debate over which is the greater young point guard has raged. Paul has gotten most of the recent attention, but if he’s better than Williams it’s by an eyelash. And not a consistent thing.
And the Lakers have serious trouble with elite point guards, especially the younger ones. Especially Williams and Paul. That’s because Derek Fisher, lovable as he is, can’t stay in front of the fast kids. And after him, you’ve got Jordan Farmar, who can score, but isn’t nearly as competent as a defender.
Williams had games of 35, 26 and 26 against the Lakers this season (shooting 56.9 percent on 33-of-58 accuracy), while Fisher averaged 11 points on 8-for-37 (21.6 percent) shooting, in those three games.
The Lakers probably are going to have to win despite Williams going for 25 (points) and 10 (assists) nearly every game in the series. (He went for 25 and nine on Friday, including 6-of-9 on threes.) But can they do that when the Jazz also brings Carlos Boozer to the party? And Mehmet Okur? And Andrei Kirilenko?
The Lakers have to hope the mismatch they have going in their favor — Kobe Bryant against Utah’s collection of competent but not great off-guards — can negate the Williams-vs.-Fisher battle. Kobe averaged 29.8 points per game as the Lakers won three of four from the Jazz this season, shooting 56.3 percent (45-for-80) from the field.
This is going to be a tough series. Remember, Utah almost never loses at home, and has a blowout win over the Lakers, in Salt Lake City, on their 2007-08 resume. (Though, yes, the Lakers did win at SLC, 106-95, on March 30, without Pau Gasol; and Houston won a playoff game there earlier this week).
The big concern is that the Lakers come out flat after not playing since Monday, lose a game at home, then can’t get home-court back at Utah … and lose this thing in six. Could happen. For sure.
3 responses so far ↓
1 DPope // May 3, 2008 at 10:35 AM
I think the Lakers hold match-up advantages at every position other than point guard. Deron Wiliams is too big for either Fisher or Farmer (or just about any other point in the league) and will pose problems. But Boozer, Kirilenko and Okur? Each is prone to falling into a shooting slump if defenders get a hand in their face regularly. The rest of their roster is something of a joke.
2 George Alfano // May 3, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Could Kobe guard Deron Williams? If not all of the time, at least some of the time?
3 Damian // May 6, 2008 at 3:13 PM
Lakers in 5.
Utah has no one that can guard Kobe. If they put AK-47 on Kobe, then Odom is freed up as a huge mismatch for Utah. The Jazz have no shot-blocker and no beef among their PFs (apart from Boozer) and Centers so as long as the Lakers are aggressive in attacking the basket, they will score lots. Besides, the Lakers’ bench is better than Utah’s.
Utah is not a dynamic scoring team that does not play well from behind and has no proven scorer who can take over down the stretch in the pressure situations the playoffs bring and isn’t necessarily a defensive beast either. Utah is one of those teams that does just about everything solid, but nothing great. A jack of all trades, master of none. That’s not good enough to contain or beat the best player in the world, who is on a mission with MVP award in hand.
Besides, if New Orleans goes up 3-0 or 3-1, the Lakers will feel motivated to close out quickly as well in order to get some rest.
After watching Game 1, the Lakers do need to bolster their middle in defending the basket. Gasol and Odom were too soft. Here’s hoping the lakers needed to go through that game to make the adjustment to play more physical against a tougher, scrappier team.
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