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The Decline and Fall of Europe?

June 22nd, 2010 · 1 Comment · Abu Dhabi, Sports Journalism, World Cup

Tomorrow is all about the United States and Algeria and Group C …

But today, we are going to look at some continental trends emerging, at South Africa 2010. In particular, the struggles of the European teams instinctively considered the best in the world — along with Brazil and Argentina.

Europe is not having a good World Cup. Four of the 16 second-round teams have been determined, and France (2006 finalist) and Greece (2004 Euro champ) were not among them. Meantime, Uruguay won Group A, Argentina won Group B, and Mexico and South Korea finished second.

Europe will put some teams through, beginning Wednesday, when they will get one and as many as four, but in the meantime … it is fair to say that some of the elite European teams are struggling mightily. England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain — which just happen to be the homes of the top five professional leagues in the world.

No coincidence, the president of Italy’s soccer federation told the AP.

Here’s why:

In those five nations, in particular, says Giancarlo Abete, club leagues are far more powerful than the national federations. Which makes for some great club football — but some fading national sides.

The crux of his argument is this:

So much money is involved in the Premier League, La Liga, Seria A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 … that any pretense to those leagues developing local talent is gone. They do not have time to play some 17-year-old hometown kid while the Champions League is at stake, or relegation is at risk, preferring to pluck a proven player from South America or Africa — or even North America or Asia. Meanwhile, national teams in those elite club nations are getting older and older.

Let’s go to the AP story (by Stuart Condie) we mentioned above.

UEFA president Michel Platini is attempting to swing the balance back in favor of national associations and young players by enforcing minimum quotas on so-called homegrown players.

But Abete is unconvinced.

“Real Madrid has a budget eight times that of the Spanish federation,” Abete said. “Nobody can stop a club” from relying on a proven champion from another country, rather than a promising young Spanish player “not even Platini.”

“All we can do is try to encourage coaches to put more faith in younger players. That’s it.”

The problem is particularly acute in England

More than half the players in the Premier League are from overseas and even the Football Association’s head of development, Trevor Brooking, said that the national team faces greater problems still once the current generation of players fade.Brooking said England is producing talented youngsters, citing last month’s victory over Spain in the final of the under-17 European Championship, but these players struggle to get the topflight experience necessary to make the leap into the national side.

“Every place in the league is worth 750,000 pounds ($1.1 million), so even at the end of season you don’t get a chance to try out youngsters because you might lose three places and cost yourself 2 million pounds ($3 million) in the transfer budget,” Brooking said.

Arsenal and Chelsea have both fielded entire teams of overseas players, and Arsenal, a regular in the Premier League’s top four, did not provide a single player to England’s 23-man World Cup squad.

South American nations may be benefiting from the relative financial weakness of their clubs.

Even continental giants such as Boca Juniors, Santos and River Plate struggle to hold onto their best players once heads are turned by the lure of Champions League soccer and lucrative offers from European clubs.

That forces them to invest heavily in young players, with soccer a traditional route out of poverty for many.

Inter Milan won the Champions League final last month without a single Italian player in its starting lineup, but with four Argentines and three Brazilians.

Julio Cesar, Maicon and Lucio have helped Brazil win its opening two group games at the World Cup, while Argentina has such depth that coach Diego Maradona felt able to leave Inter’s Javier Zanetti and Esteban Cambiasso out of his squad. …

European clubs pay their players’ enormous salaries and feel entitled to get the best out of them before turning them over to the national associations. The result of all this is that Europe could be headed for its lowest representation in the round of 16 since the World Cup was expanded to 32 teams in 1998.

We looked it up, and we’ll do a list.

1998 (France): 15 Euro teams, 10 advanced.

2002 (Japan/Korea): 15 Euro teams, 9 advanced.

2006: (Germany), 14 Euro teams, 10 advanced.

2010 (South Africa): 13 Euro teams, ?? advanced.

I’m guessing it will be 8 (England, Germany, Serbia, Holland, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, Spain), though as few as three will finish atop their group (Germany, Holland, Spain).

Some other continental notes:

This is a banner year for South America. It already has two group winners. Brazil will win its group, barring a Portugal upset. Paraguay will win its group if it can beat New Zealand. Chile will win its group if it can tie or defeat Spain. Five for five as group champions? Wow.

Not a good year for Asia. South Korea is in, but that could be the end of it. Japan has to beat Denmark (don’t count on it), Australia has to beat Serbia big to have a shot, and North Korea is done.

North America, jury still out. Mexico is in, Honduras is out. If the U.S. advances, it’s a good World Cup for Concacaf. If it doesn’t, it isn’t.

The biggest surprise of all?

Africa stuggling so badly. The idea was that African teams would shine on their home continent, and put a team in the semifinals, and several in the Round of 16. But South Africa just became the first host nation not to advance … Nigeria just went out … Cameroon is already eliminated with a game in hand, Algeria has to beat the U.S. by two goals, Ivory Coast needs Portugal to lose to Brazil and beat North Korea by about eight goals.

Ghana leads its group, and probably will make it, but it won’t if it loses to Germany and Serbia beats Australia, and those two results have a fair chance of popping up.

Which means that the six African teams (the all-time high for African representation) probably will go 1-for-6 in getting to the knockout phase and could go 0-for-6. On its home continent. Suggesting that African football is now overrated. Lots of good individuals playing in Europe … very few competent national teams playing in the World Cup.

Hmm.

And now tomorrow: England vs. Slovenia, the U.S. vs. Algeria. I predict England and U.S. victories, with the Yanks winning the group. But Slovenia and Algeria going instead wouldn’t shock me, either.

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1 response so far ↓

  • 1 Chuck Hickey // Jun 22, 2010 at 9:46 PM

    A goofy Cup, but to be expected when not in Europe. See: Japan-South Korea. And a nice opening for my pick to finally win the Cup (Dutch), but a Brazil-Argentina final would be wild.

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