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Trying to Catch Europe, South America

December 13th, 2010 · No Comments · Abu Dhabi, soccer, UAE, World Cup

Somehow, the gulf in the soccer world between Europe, South America … and everyone else … seems more pronounced in the Club World Cup than the regular World Cup.

I know why. In the World Cup, even though you know that the odds are about 99.99 percent than a team from Europe or South America (well, Brazil or Argentina) is going to win at the end, at any given moment a national team from some other continent has a shot at winning a match. The U.S. beat England 1-0 in 1950, Senegal beat France in 2002. South Korea beat Italy and Spain. Cameroon won 1-0 over Argentina in 1990. Algeria beat West Germany 2-1 in 1982.

In the Club World Cup … upsets just haven’t happened. Which I wrote about today.

Thing event has had six previous editions, and so far no team from Europe or South America has ever lost to a club team from the other four continents, as I note in this story.

That has led to a rather dull history of teams from Europe and South America — only — playing in the final. Over the past five years, when the current format of the event was standardized, Europe and South America (which are always on opposite sides of the bracket, and always parachuted directly into the semifinals) have never lost in the semis. They’re 10-0. On four occasions they took down a team from North America, four times it was a side from Asia and twice it was an African team. (Oceania shows up in the Club World Cup, too, but has no chance. Zero.)

That’s the way you want it, in a given year, because the champions from those two continents are likely to put on the best final. But wouldn’t it be fun to mix in a Pachuca in the final? Or a Urawa Red Diamonds? An Al Ahly?

Or, this year, a Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma or a TP Mazembe?

We have the semifinals of the Club World Cup coming up tomorrow and Wednesday, and the chances of Mazembe beating Internacional of Brazil or Seongnam taking down Inter Milan … well they’re ultra-slim and none.

Hard to imagine, too, that anyone else will break through soon. The clubs from Africa-Asia-North America are farther behind Europe and South American than are their national teams.

If the World Cup were held every year, like the Club World Cup, instead of once every four years, I would predict a non-Euro/South American team as the winner of the World Cup before one won the Club World Cup. But as long as we’re knocking out one of these every year, it ought to happen here first. Four times as many chances, right?

But, that won’t happen till the Rest of the World gets a team to the final. They have two more shots at it over the next 48 hours.

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