I talked to Carlo Nohra today about the upcoming Fifa presidential election. Nohra is the chief executive of the UAE domestic soccer league and a very bright guy, and he also worked several years with Mohamed bin Hammam, who is Sepp Blatter’s opponent in the election.

I will be doing a piece on bin Hammam next week, and I was counting on Nohra to give me some idea of what kind of leader and executive bin Hammam is … but he gave me another interesting story:

Bin Hammam not only can win the Fifa presidency, he will.

I can’t be sure that Nohra really knows what he is talking about, when it comes to the election. It’s not like we have pollsters out there with numbers they publish every few days. But I just mentioned that he is very bright, and he also is very articulate … and fairly persuasive.

I won’t say I now believe Sepp is comin’ down next Wednesday… but I no longer believe the race is done-done-done, like I did when my conversation with Nohra began.

First, a link, then a summary of Nohra’s thinking on the election.

My story for the Wednesday paper is here.

If you didn’t follow the link, the gist of Nohra’s argument for a bin Hammam victory/Sepp defeat, is this:

–The world’s 208 national associations, who vote in the election on June 1, understand that Fifa has major problems with honesty and integrity and even with modernity. They are prepared to vote against Sepp Blatter. They want him gone. And bin Hammam is the only option. That’s the “we’re voting against Sepp, not for bin Hammam” thing, which still works for bin Hammam.

–Bin Hammam, 61 to Blatter’s 75, is younger, sharper, hipper … he is sort of the Barack Obama to Blatter’s John McCain in the sense of “one guy looks like tomorrow … the other looks like yesterday.” And if you don’t much like how yesterday went … well, you’re going to look at tomorrow. That’s the “I like bin Hammam” school of thought.

–Sepp Blatter is such a master of Fifa cronyism that those who want him gone are, basically, terrified of incurring his wrath — on the chance that he wins re-election. He can mess with you and your federation in so many ways — and the associations seem certain that he will … for four long years. For instance, the UAE is bidding to host the Fifa Club World Cup in December of 2013 and 2014 … and what do you think their chances are if the UAE endorses bin Hammam and Blatter wins? Probably zero. Thus, don’t look for lots of countries hurrying to make public endorsements of bin Hammam. That whole “if you shoot at the king you better kill him” thing, and the shooting doesn’t really commence until June 1, at the polls.

–Blatter does, in fact, have a grip on the continental federations, and the endorsements he has gotten from five of the six of them (Europe, North America, South America, Africa, Oceania), all of them except Asia, of which bin Hammam is president, make it look very dire for bin Hammam. However, Nohra argues that an endorsement from the continental federations — who don’t vote — will not result in lockstep voting blocs from their various national associations/federations. (Although that has been the case, recently, of North and South America.) Thus, Nohra believes that many African nations and perhaps more than a few European ones, will ignore what their federations want and will vote what their national association wants, and those free-thinkers, along with the majority of the 46-nation Asian bloc, will get bin Hammam to 105 votes.

I still believe Blatter is the favorite. Perhaps even the heavy favorite. I believe we have to give the old guy credit for the globehopping he has done the past six weeks or so. He has been constantly on the move, shaking hands, kissing babies, promising Fifa support of development projects … it really has looked a lot like a U.S. presidential campaign.  Blatter has done at least as much overt campaigning as has bin Hammam, from outward appearances.

Still and all … Carlo Nohra, the UAE soccer league chief, much of whose life has been in soccer administration … seems serenely convinced that a big undercurrent of support for bin Hammam is out there … that 105-plus associations are biding their time, keeping quiet, trying to stay off Blatter’s radar … but on June 1 they will cast their votes for change, and the Man from Qatar will be swept into office.

Interesting narrative.