We return now to the Middle East, and particularly the Gulf, where are located some of the most prominent members of Opec — the Organization of Petroeum Exporting Countries. Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the UAE among them.

Opec’s collective position in setting prices and regulating the flow of oil has been part of international business calculus for decades now.

But the advent of fracking — hydraulic fracturing — and the extraction of oil and gas from shale deposits, particularly in the U.S. and Canada, appears to have upset some of the calculations of Opec.

As reported in The National, Opec predicts increased demand next year for petroleum products, but the group also concedes that the amount of oil/gas coming on line from North American shale will meet the new demand.

No matter where one stands on the long-term implications of fracking (and possible environmental damage), the short-term result — more oil for sale — has sparked concern among Opec.

It appears the U.S. will be spending far less money on imported oil, because of the fracking revolution, and The Wall Street Journal quoted an expert who suggested: “Growth in U.S. shale-oil production could have the most significant long-term impact on oil prices of any supply event in recent decades.”

Opec officials previously had downplayed or dismissed the arrival of shale oil in the pipeline, The National’s story notes.

“This is not the first time new sources of oil are discovered; don’t forget history,” said Ali Al Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, during the last Opec meeting, held last month. “There was oil from the North Sea and Brazil, so why is there so much talk about shale oil now?”Added Abdalla El Badri, Opec’s secretary general: “Opec will be around after shale oil finishes.”

Clearly, this is a topic that will continue to be watched by Opec. The assumptions that underlie the economies of oil-producing nations may need to be recalibrated.