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Nervous Time in UAE Football

October 6th, 2015 · No Comments · Football, soccer, UAE, World Cup

The UAE has played in the World Cup once, in Italy, in 1990. A quarter-century ago. And a country of soccer fans would like to see their team go back.

Specifically, to Russia 2018, the next World Cup.

Six months ago, it looked like it could happen. Now? Not so much.

What is the problem?

Two words: Saudi Arabia.

As the fifth-ranked team in Asia, according to Fifa computations, the UAE was placed at the top of one of the eight groups of teams playing in this round of Asia qualifying. Good. Nice start.

And it was declared that the winners of the eight groups, as well as the four-best second-place teams, would advance to the final 12. (To be placed in two groups of six, with the top two sides in each group going to Russia, and the No. 5 team getting a chance to get in versus an also-ran from another continent.)

OK. Fine so far. Good.

And then the UAE got Saudi Arabia in its group.

Probably the toughest team in the second “pot” of Asian teams. And one that has given the UAE particular trouble over the years. To the tune of 21 Saudi victories, six UAE victories, six draws.

And that is who the UAE plays, in Jeddah, on Thursday.

What makes this a fraught moment, a year away from the completion of qualifying, is that the UAE dropped two points in the scoreless draw away to Palestine, and really, really could use a point in Saudi on Thursday.

What you want, of course, is to win your group. But with the UAE and Saudi in the same group? Most of Asia already was thinking the Saudis would win the group. And they may well.

The stadium in Jeddah will be packed, and the Saudis will be confident. Why not? They haven’t lost to the UAE since 2007.

They also still believe they are a serious soccer power (the four consecutive World Cup appearances, through 2006) — and especially when they are  playing the team from that little country further down the Arabian Peninsula.

To be sure, they are good enough to win at home. And then that puts the UAE at risk — unlikely to win the group, which means they would have to be one of the top four second-place sides, and a defeat to Saudi makes that harder.

They would have seven points — well, in reality, four, because matches against the bottom side in Group A will not count, and the bottom side will be Malaysia or East Timor, and the UAE has a victory over each of them already.

So, a loss in Saudi … the UAE would be stuck on four points. It would get another three from defeating Whomever It Is finishes fourth, and that is seven. And then the two final home games, in March, against Palestine and then against Saudi.

Let’s say the UAE draws with Palestine and loses to Saudi … well, they probably would finish third in that case, and they would be done.

Let’s sat the UAE beats Palestine and loses to Saudi … and that’s 10 points and, presumably, second in the group.

But enough to advance as one of those “four-best” second-place teams?

Nobody wants it to come down to that.

And one other major, major factor.

The UAE team is, right this minute, better than it has been since 1990 — and probably better than those guys were, in a global stage. But the group of players a bit older than the guys in this team, which is made up of the London 2012 Olympic team, now into their middle 20s, will be a little too old to hope to make the 2022 World Cup — especially given the chasm in talent behind them.

Which brings us back to Saudi Arabia, on Thursday night.

The UAE has one victory in Saudi — 2-0 in a friendly in 2001. Thus, asking them to win is asking them to do something they have never done — won a competitive match in Saudi.

Also, Saudi seems to have settled on a clever, if cynical, tactic against the UAE — attacking Omar Abdulrahman, the UAE’s best player and playmaker. He was driven out of a semifinal match in a half hour at the Gulf Cup of Nations when it was held in Saudi, because the Saudis had kicked him black and blue.

Saudi won, 3-2.

Anyway, this is a huge match. People who are paying attention know it’s a pivotal moment in the 2018 campaign, for the Emiratis. A win in Saudi, and the UAE is in good shape — and Saudi will be shaken to its core. Might well lose to Palestine, too, and then it’s plain sailing for the UAE.

A draw? Acceptable, for sure. Leaves everything up for further matches and means the UAE can get to the final round of qualifying if it takes care of business, at home, in March.

That’s why it is nervous time here. The dream of a second World Cup … informed fans know how shaky it is at this moment and how big this game in Jeddah is and how this opportunity may not come around again for another 25 years.

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