It’s not over for John McCain or USC’s dreams of a BCS title game slot.

But as the pundits would say, both have to fill an inside straight. With, like, two cards. Or in the Trojans’ case, maybe three cards.

USC defeated Washington 56-0 on Saturday … and dropped two slots in the BCS rankings, to No. 7.

Which amplifies what I said right after the Trojans lost to Oregon State.

One loss almost certainly kills USC’s national-title hopes this year. For the same reason we explained back then.

The Pac-10 sucks.

There are no particularly valuable victories for USC in conference play. Cal, next Saturday, would be marginally useful. But that’s it. Crushing bad Pac-10 teams is hurting the Trojans in the computer rankings every week. Stanford and UCLA will just be more of the same.

This is the worst year for the conference in … oh, pick a number. Ten years? Twenty? Since it added the Arizonas in the mid-70s?

McCain can win if about 3 percent of voters in a half-dozen states change their minds in the next 48 hours.

The Trojans, however, are reaching the point where they need a long series of results to get them into the top two.

The bottom line is this: USC will not finish ahead of any one-defeat team from the Big 12 or SEC. And almost certainly not ahead of a one-defeat Penn State, either.

Thus, with two-thirds of the season complete, USC needs all but one of the following to happen:

Two defeats for Alabama, Texas Tech and Penn State.

Another defeat for Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State and Florida.

And given what the Mountain West Conference did to the Pac-10 this year (5-1, including Utah 31, Oregon State 28; New Mexico 36, Arizona 28; UNLV (!) 23, Arizona State 20; and BYU 59, UCLA 0), it would be a good idea for unbeaten Utah to lose a game,  too.

So, who do the teams USC needs failure from have left?

No. 1 Alabama is at LSU, home against Mississippi State and Auburn. It has to lose at least one of those, because if its only loss is in the SEC title game, the Tide still will rank ahead of the Trojans. Best hope? LSU. Though Auburn has won six straight over Alabama.

No.2 Texas Tech is home against Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, Baylor and (maybe) the Big 12 title game. Tech could lose two. Could happen. OK State and OK.

No. 3 Penn State is at Iowa, home against Indiana and Michigan State.  Iowa has a shot. But USC needs two defeats here, because Penn State annihilated Oregon State, 45-14 — and OSU defeated the Trojans 27-21, remember? Michigan State? Have to hope.

No. 4 Texas gets Baylor, travels to Kansas and is home against A&M. That’s not a very tough trio, and the Horns would be major favorites if they get to the Big 12 title game against, probably, Missouri. USC needs Texas to lose, to somebody. Presumably Missouri.

No. 5 Florida is at Vanderbilt, which could be tricky; home against South Carolina and Citadel (no tricks required) and at Florida State, which hasn’t won a big game since the Clinton Administration. Then it gets Alabama, almost certainly, in the SEC title game.  The Gators run the table, they’re playing for that crystal ball unless (maybe) Penn State is unbeaten and Texas or Oklahoma State finishes with one defeat.

No. 6 Oklahoma. At A&M, home against Texas Tech, at Oklahoma State. And then perhaps the Big 12 title game against, yes, probably Missouri. If the Sooners go through that — and get Texas to lose — they’re going to have a very strong case. Unless Penn State and Alabama are unbeaten.

No. 8 Utah.  Home against TCU, at San Diego State, home against BYU. One defeat will be enough, and it could happen against TCU or BYU. USC probably finishes ahead of a one-loss Utah. Not that it would be fair, but it would.

No. 9 Oklahoma State. At Texas Tech (the game of the century!), at Colorado, home against Oklahoma and, yes, Missouri in the Big 12. Again, if they win out and are 12-1, it’s impossible that they won’t jump the Trojans.

So, there you are. The Trojans have issues, all of them out of their control.

They need Big 12 fratricide (say, Texas Tech defeats OK State, Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, OK State defeats Oklahoma and A&M defeats Texas — and Missouri somehow beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 game). That leaves everyone in the Big 12 with two defeats. Not likely. Could happen. What would really hurt the Trojans is if a one-loss Tech or Texas doesn’t even play in the Big 12 title game — and one or the other happens (if Tech’s one loss is to Oklahoma or Texas’ one loss is to an unbeaten Tech).

Then the Trojans need Penn State to lose twice. I really don’t see this one happening. If PSU and USC are each 11-1, Penn State goes because its schedule is better (for the computers) and humans will do the PSU-over-OSU-over USC math and vote Penn State, too.

And they need Alabama to lose in the regular season AND in the SEC title game — where Florida shows up with two defeats (Vandy, maybe)?

Anyway, don’t count on it. Which is a shame, because this USC could be as good as any Pete Carroll has had.

Where it went wrong was losing one game in a year when the Pac-10 cratered. Last year, one defeat wouldn’t have been fatal. Year before, same thing. This year? Nope.

The Trojans actually should concentrate on winning the Pac-10, winning big in the Rose Bowl against somebody good, and hoping that a couple of one-loss teams are in the BCS game, and play a sloppy game and then, maybe but not likely, USC can get the AP (non-BCS) share of the national title.

Anyway, absolutely, John McCain has a much better chance of having things work out.