The Bruins and Trojans are in, as we knew they would be. UCLA for its body of work and USC for winning the Pac-10 tournament title, which we didn’t quite see coming.
Nice. For Los Angeles-area college basketball (which also has Cal State Northridge in the tourney). But don’t expect any L.A. team to last long in the NCAA Tournament.
We’ll start with the easy one: USC.
The Trojans were 18-12 and probably weren’t going to make the NCAAs without winning the conference tournament, and let’s give Tim Floyd & Co. credit for three consecutive upsets (if we go by rankings and regular-season standings), of Cal, UCLA and Arizona State, to get to 21-12.
USC can hang around with anybody because Floyd’s teams play such ferocious defense. But this team doesn’t have a go-to guy on offense (DeMar DeRozan isn’t quite there), and suffers from depth issues (two points from their bench vs. ASU), which has been an ongoing situation during Floyd’s tenure. The Trojans really can’t have one of their starters get two fouls in the first five minutes, and they can’t have much of anyone foul out.
They have the 10 seed in the Midwest Region, which looks formidable. Boston College is USC’s first-round opponent, and might be a team the Trojans can take, if the exertion of winning the Pac-10 tourney hasn’t exhausted them. But even if they top BC it’s hard to imagine them surviving second-seeded Michigan State in the second round. Tim Floyd needs another good recruiting class — and DeRozan sticking around — and maybe the Trojans can do some damage a year from now.
Then there are the Bruins. The No. 6 seed in the East, which is about right for a team that is 25-8 and doesn’t really have a signature victory, unless Washington in Pauley Pavilion counts.
UCLA has a sort of “didn’t deliver what was expected” feel to it this season, which perhaps isn’t quite fair, now that the NBA has indicated how good three players who started a year ago are — Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook and Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute. Westbrook has a shot at being the league rookie of the year (at Oklahoma City), Love is starting in Minnesota and Mbah a Moute started for Milwaukee for the first two months. All three guys could still be playing for the Bruins.
Plus, the latest heralded freshman class — Jrue Holliday, Drew Gordon and Michael Lee — has been more “freshman” than “class.” None of those three is ready for The League, unless we are no judge of talent. And, remember, five months ago Holliday (8.3 ppg) was touted as a one-and-done potential lottery pick. Which seems insane, now.
So, the Bruins are small and not particularly athletic, and their best player, Darren Collison, may be nicked up, with a tailbone injury that probably contributed to his 1-for-9 shooting effort against the Trojans.
As it turns out, UCLA doesn’t have a really awful bracket (though the travel, this weekend in Philly, the following in Massachusetts, is daunting). The Bruins made the last three Final Fours, but they played in California and Arizona until the Final Four in each of those years, and they don’t have that going on this time around.
Virginia Commonwealth certainly is beatable, Villanova likely would be next in what would amount to a ‘Nova home game, and the Bruins can handle gritty Big East teams because coach Ben Howland lived all that while coaching at Pitt. Then they likely would get Duke, which wouldn’t scare them, and Pitt in the regional final (ditto).
Thing is, none of those teams will overwhelm UCLA with its talent, and a talent-deficit is what ended the Bruins’ season the last three seasons (Florida twice, then Memphis). So they have a shot, at least for a few games.
But we doubt, extremely, that they will make another Final Four run. This is not a big team, it needs a healthy Collison (maybe he isn’t), it needs a clutch Josh Shipp (never has been before, in the tourney) and it needs its only really competent “big” (Alfred Aboya) to play out of his mind — and that is just too many “needs” to make for a long run.
So, anyway, don’t pencil in UCLA or USC for the Final Four in your office pool. Unless you just want to show solidarity with the local teams and don’t really want to win.
And Northridge? The Matadors get Memphis in the first round, and Memphis has been trashing people by 30-plus, game in and game out. Northridge won’t interrupt that pattern.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Ryan // Mar 15, 2009 at 8:13 PM
The committee did an awful job this year. Normally, I think they do a pretty damn good job, but all over the bracket they failed this year. Making teams travel unnecessarily, horribly under and over seeding teams and their blatant disregard for the accomplishments of mid-major teams. The committee did a downright terrible job.
2 joel es latest soccer news // Mar 19, 2009 at 9:27 AM
I have no clue this year who is going to win. Last year, my team won it; KU Jayhawks. This year we are rebuilding.
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