This may have occurred to every Trojan and Trojan wannabe in the country, and been written here, there and everywhere, but hey I’m in Paris, and I haven’t spent much time thinking about college football.
But this one thought has crossed my mind, and it’s not a pretty one for the cardinal-and-gold folks.
USC can’t afford a single misstep. Again. If it wants to play for a national title.
And that is what USC is about, since Pete Carroll’s second year — playing for a national title, or wanting to/preparing to/aspiring to play for the big crystal football. Or whatever it is the Associated Press gives out for The Other Trophy.
The big problem, again?
USC’s schedule is comparitively weak. Still. And through no fault of its own.
Who knew, five years ago, that Notre Dame was be a middling team still … and that Ohio State would take a big step (or five) back from its Early Tressel Era? Or that the Pac-10 would turn into USC and the Nine Dwarfs?
The good news? The Trojans are close to controlling their own destiny. They began the season ranked No. 4, and No. 3 Oklahoma just went down in its season opener. If No. 1 Florida or No. 2 Texas has the decency to lose a game anytime in the next three months and the Trojans finish the regular season 12-0, they play for No. 1. It will happen.
The bad news is … it’s bloody hard to go 12-0, even playing in the Pac-10. Which the rest of the country doesn’t believe.
USC’s schedule is 11/12ths the same as last year. The only change? A road game against Virginia was replaced by a home game against San Jose State, and that isn’t exactly a schedule upgrade.
The other non-conference games are, again, Ohio State and Notre Dame. The rest of the season is the Pac-10.
Ohio State probably will be ranked No. 5 when it plays host to the Trojans on Saturday, and OSU was No. 5 last year when USC spanked the Buckeyes 35-3 in the Rose Bowl.
Notre Dame seems more highly regarded than last year, and is ranked, but with Charlie Weis around, how long can that last?
And then there is the Pac-10, which began the season with three ranked teams, and one of them (Oregon) just lost to Boise State, going three quarters without a first down, or something like that, and then losing its tailback for the season because he punched out a BYU guy on national TV. Hmm. Not good for business, these losses to the WAC and then assaults at midfield.
Hence, Troy boys (and girls), start planning on needing a 12-0 to get to the Big One. Show up to every Pac-10 game, and root on the lads, because they can’t afford even one stubbed toe. Not when the SEC and Big 12 are perceived to be loaded.
It would be nice if UCLA or Cal or Oregon State — somebody — could contrive to win 10 games, be ranked all year … but that probably is too much to hope for.
A year ago, USC lost once — at Oregon State, in September, and I pronounced them dead in the race for No. 1.
Same deal this time around. One Pac-10 defeat … well, one defeat of any sort … will be one too many. USC will not finish ranked ahead of a one-defeat championship team from the SEC or Big 12.
Get used to it. Plan for it. And, no, you don’t get bonus points for starting a freshman at quarterback. Who better be good at Columbus on Saturday, by the way, because if the Buckeyes win, USC is playing for (yawn) the Rose Bowl.
1 response so far ↓
1 David Lassen // Sep 6, 2009 at 2:05 PM
Of course, if they do go 12-0, they’re also playing at the Rose Bowl, since this is Pasadena’s year for the silly double-hosting format of the championship game.
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