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An Island of Fiscal Optimisim

November 27th, 2012 · No Comments · Dubai, UAE

If you believe the forecasts of a group named the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and many do, the world is headed back into recession next year.

The triggers for more bad economic times, the OECD suggests, will be the U.S. fiscal cliff and shrinkage in the Euro Zone.

Some regions are exceptions, however. And we are living in one of them.

Really, it is why we are living in one of them.

The Gulf would probably be sitting on a rising economic tide even if oil were taken out of the equation. The UAE, in particular, is poised at a communications and travel nexus between Europe and Asia, as well as both of those and Africa.

Things are happening here. Still. Or again.

Three years ago, Dubai faced a fiscal crisis that required a $20 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi and led to the world’s tallest building, the Burj Dubai, suddenly being renamed the Burj Khalifa — Khalifa bin Zayed being the UAE president, and Emir of Abu Dhabi.

But Dubai is back in a big way. Or certainly is acting as if it is.

Among the projects announced this week: another gargantuan development named Mohammed bin Rashid City, which would include the world’s biggest shopping center and more than 100 hotels; and an announcement to build five “Florida-style” theme parks in the emirate some consider the UAE’s New York City to Abu Dhabi’s Washington DC.

The biggest factor in optimism for the UAE, though, is oil. The country has it. Lots of it. And Abu Dhabi has most of it.

When crude is selling for more than $100 a barrel, and the world demand continues to increase, cash will flow into the UAE (and Qatar and Saudi Arabia) as the oil flows out.

The Washington Post last weekend published an op-ed piece calling for Americans advanced credentials to look overseas for work. I have been saying this for a couple of years now. American expertise remains valued, and American universities are accepted as the best in the world. (There isn’t even much of a discussion.)

If the global economy begins heading downhill again, it may be time for Yanks to look overseas. The U.S. is a nation of immigrants, and it may be time for its citizens to show the adventurousness of their forefathers.

It also means we won’t be leaving the UAE any time soon, inshallah. Here, jobs, progress and optimism seem in almost unlimited supply. It isn’t the “home” you grew up in, but humans have an ability to adapt.

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