Several broad trends in the makeup of Asia’s delegation to the World Cup were confirmed today, the final match day of qualifying for Brazil 2014.

It is good news for the powers that be. And have been. It is bad news for just about everyone else.

1. We must assume South Korea and Japan will win two of Asia’s four guaranteed berths. Always. Despite losing today, South Korea is headed for its eighth consecutive World Cup; Japan two weeks ago secured its fifth consecutive appearance. Those are countries with strong domestic leagues, sizable population bases and well-run, forward-looking federations.

2. The admission of Australia to the Asian Football Confederation strengthened it by adding an English-language country (good for international media exposure) and another well-run federation, but it appears to have the practical effect of taking a World Cup berth from the parts of the world we normally consider “Asia”. Australia (population 23 million) is perhaps the world’s most successful sporting nation on a man-for-man basis, and is 2-for-2 going to the World Cup from the AFC. (It perhaps is no coincidence that Saudi Arabia’s run of four consecutive World Cups ended the moment Australia joined Asia.)

3. Odds are, Iran will get the fourth Asia spot. By winning in South Korea today, the Islamic Republic clinched its third appearance since 1998. They lack skill and refinement, but they are pugnacious and passionate about the game.

4. China continues to be the world’s premier underachieving soccer nation. Forget the Olympics; China is a soccer country, and its ongoing failures to compete among Asia’s elite, never mind the world’s, are a source of deep national embarrassment — as it should be, given the population and wealth of the country. In this World Cup cycle, China again failed to make Asia’s final 10, and a corrupt and incompetent federation bears much of the blame.

5. The hard times have not ended for Asia’s 11 Arabic-speaking nations, and nothing happened in this qualification cycle to forecast a change in time for Russia 2018. Hard to imagine, now, that a team from the region appeared in every World Cup from 1982 through 2006 (Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia).

Saudi Arabia has fallen to pieces as a soccer nation. Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain and Yemen have significant internal issues. Oman and Jordan are dirt poor. The UAE, Qatar and Kuwait lack the population base to pose regular threats. Plus, few of those 11 countries have forward-looking and stable federations, and several lack a domestic league of any significance. A recipe for failure.

6. Asia retains by far the biggest pocket of “we don’t give a damn nations” in world soccer. That would be the whole of the subcontinent, and most of its neighbors — India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and all of the “stans” who aren’t the Uzbeks. Hard to imagine any of those amounting to anything before, say, 2026. Later, if they don’t get over their one-sport (cricket, in most cases) mania.

7. The “outsider” most likely to break into Asia’s top group is Uzbekistan. Had Iran lost today in South Korea, which could easily have happened, the Uzbeks would be partying tonight, celebrating their first World Cup berth. They play a direct, physical brand of soccer which seems fitting for a former Soviet “republic”. If they add a touch of finesse, they have a chance to shoulder aside somebody at the top.

The Uzbeks still could make Brazil 2014 — though it is not the way to bet. They will be heavily favored in a home-and-away, fifth-place playoff with scrappy but modestly talented Jordan, but they will have a harder time in the intercontinental playoff with the No. 5 team out of South America. At the moment, that would be Uruguay. But it could be Venezuela or Peru, and the Uzbeks have a shot at beating one of those two.

Thus, business as usual, in Asia. After two years of qualifying, the usual suspects are going to Fifa’s Big Dance.

The only clearly upwardly mobile team in the 46-nation federation  appears to be Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, we wait for China to emerge from its stupor, wonder if the subcontinent will ever join the world community and began to doubt that any of the Arab countries can hang with the powers that be.