C’mon. Most of you weren’t born yesterday. You began following sports a long time ago.

And you ought to recognize the signs pointing to a “surprise” defeat. This one involving a soccer rivalry everyone in Mexico, and many in the U.S., now care about.

The Yanks versus El Tri in World Cup qualifying on Tuesday.

That would be the game which ESPN’s website is discussing under the headline: Is the U.S. poised to humiliate Mexico again?

This has all of the hallmarks of a match that will swing the other way.

–Mexico is being left for dead. One victory in seven matches in the Hexagonal, including that shock 2-1 defeat in Estadio Azteca last week. Mexico is too good to be left for dead until actually dead, and Mexico certainly is not. It has nine points to play for. Six points ought to be enough to finish in the top three of the Hexagonal, and secure a direct berth in the Brazil 2014 World Cup.

—Jose Manuel de la Torre, Mexico’s coach, was just fired. How may times in sports history have we seen a disappointing team show, in their very next game, that the problem was not them as much as the guy who was coaching them? De la Torre lost his team months ago; everyone but the Mexican federation could see that. And now he’s gone. Addition by subtraction.

–It was all of two years ago that Mexico trashed the U.S. 4-2 in the Gold Cup final, in Pasadena, and pundits were predicting a long run of Mexico dominance in the continent’s greatest soccer rivalry. A lot of the guys who played in that 4-2 wipeout are still with this Mexico team. They have not forgotten how to play.

–The U.S. doesn’t enter this match on a roll. The 12-consecutive-victory thing, which included a bunch of wins over weakened sides in this summer’s Gold Cup, came to an abrupt end in Costa Rica last week. Anyone paying any attention cannot be confident about the U.S. back line — or in Tim Howard in goal. (Brad Guzan, anyone?)

–This is a weakened U.S. side. Jozy Altidore out on a one-game suspension. Michael Bradley, the key midfielder, sidelined with a badly sprained ankle. Those are two of the four or five most important players on the U.S. team.

–Just because a country has won a few times at a venue doesn’t mean they can count on winning there forever. Consider Mexico and Azteca, and Mexico had a much more impressive record, compiled over a much longer span of time, than the U.S. does in Columbus, Ohio. This will be the fourth World Cup qualifier, versus Mexico, the U.S. has played in Columbus, and the U.S. won each of the first three by the same 2-0 score. However, two of those were played in February, in the near-freezing temperatures Mexico rarely experiences. It will not be near freezing in Columbus on Tuesday.

–Even though Mexico has only eight points from seven matches, it has lost only once — that weird thing against Honduras last week when, for all we know, the players just mailed it in, fairly confident that a defeat would rid them of their coach.

This just feels bad. You know it does. Overconfidence in the U.S. soccer community. Amnesia in regard to recent Mexico butt kickings of the U.S.  Mexico desperate for three points. A team with world-class scorers in Javier Hernandez and Giovani dos Santos. And the U.S. is going to “humiliate” Mexico just by showing up?

Remember, you were warned.