This is exciting, if you’re a soccer/football fan. Two World Cup announcements tomorrow on the same day. Never has happened before. Probably should never happen again. Personally, I think it’s going down this way so that aging Fifa president Sepp Blatter can push his influence another four years into the future without having to live the extra four years.
But there we have it. Two hosts confirmed, tomorrow. Sites for 2018 and 2022.
And, of course, I have an opinion on how this ought to turn out.
About 10 days ago, I did a column for The National in which I suggested that the 22 men voting for the candidate countries … to decide what criteria matter most for them, and then pick the countries who fill the requirements best. (You know, instead of waiting to see who offers the most money.)
You want big venues? Then it’s England and the United States. You want exotic, then it’s Russia and Qatar. And so forth.
To recap …
The bidders for 2018: Belgium-Holland, England, Russia, Spain-Portugal.
The bidders for 2022: Australia, Japan, Qatar, South Korea, United States.
Here in the UAE, the official government position is support for little Qatar, up the street. The idea is that it’s time for the Arab world to get a World Cup. Not that the UAE has any influence on this; it doesn’t have a vote on the executive commitee.
The problems with Qatar are fairly obvious. It is ridiculously hot in June and July, when the World Cup is played … and the prohibition in Muslim countries against alcohol will make the usual beery World Cup partying pretty much impossible. Certainly in the streets. We could also note that for the last 70 years no World Cup has been awarded to a country that hasn’t played in one. Qatar has never been in the World Cup, yet they should be allowed to stage one? Uh, no.
So, then, whom would I like to see?
For 2018, I have no overwhelming favorite. I suppose Russia is my last choice, because the country is corrupt and the distances are great. It would be weird and different, though, and I do like that. I’m OK with the other three. Spain and Portugal are great destinations, but they also might be quite warm … and Belgium-Holland would be quite compact but, I don’t know, maybe a little dull? So that leaves England, which seems almost too trite, too soccer-glutted to choose, but there you go.
For 2022, we eliminate Japan and South Korea right off because they had 2002. Too recent. (Though it won’t seem quite so recent by the time 2022 rolls around.) We eliminate Qatar because of weather and cultural problems and a lack of a meaningful soccer history. That leaves the U.S. and Australia, and that’s a tough call.
I love Australia, and it would be a great party and the Aussies would be great hosts. I have extremely fond memories of the 2000 Olympics in Sydney. But Australia cares even less about soccer than does the U.S.
So, I’ll do the obvious, even though I’m getting there semi-obliquely, and back the U.S. Two major reasons: 1) maybe the event will be big enough to shame several U.S. cities into some infrastructure work and 2) the U.S. is such a pastiche of nationalities that every country in the tournament will have real, legit hometown fans. Slovenians to watch Slovenia. Paraguayans to watch Paraguay. Sure, people will travel from their home countries, but they also have fans already in place. That’s what the U.S. is about. People from everywhere.
So, England and the U.S.
Whom do I think will actually win?
Fifa doesn’t like England. It just doesn’t. It’s jealous of the Premier League, and the guys who vote on the executive board are mad at those muckraking British newspapers that keep catching the honchos with their hands out. (Two were suspended a week ago, and won’t be able to vote tomorrow; the electorate is supposed to be 24; it will be 22 instead.) I do think it will come back to haunt England tomorrow. Though Fifa probably was disinclined to give it to the Englanders, anyway.
Fifa isn’t crazy about the U.S., either. America doesn’t go nuts enough about the World Cup, and Fifa doesn’t like that. It wants the whole country to be one big World Cup hothouse. The U.S. doesn’t give you that. Plus, the country doesn’t represent One Big New Market the way it did back in 1994. That means Australia, in particular, will have a real shot.
I think it will still end up being the Yanks. Not out of love for the US of A, but out of love for the money Fifa knows it would make.
So the actual winners? Spain-Portugal and the U.S.
Now we wait to see.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Dennis Pope // Dec 2, 2010 at 8:17 AM
Ahhhhhh! What just happened??? I may never see a WC, nor may my children see a WC, at this point.
2 Gigi // Dec 2, 2010 at 12:20 PM
Well, considering who was selected, I don’t think I’ll be taking any betting tips from you 🙂
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