The United States vs. Brazil in the Confederations Cup final on Sunday. Tough assignment, which not everyone may remember at the moment, given that lots of U.S. fans are all giddy over the Spain result and the Egypt demolition.

But I still make Brazil about a 4-to-1 favorite. It would be more, but soccer is a fluky game. More than in any other world sport, the lesser team can beat the greater team because scoring is so rare. And if the lesser team is at least in the same area code as the greater team (Yanks vs. Brazil, not New Zealand vs. Brazil), the odds for the lesser team get even better.

If we were betting on scoring chances, I’d have Brazil winning by about 20-to-1 odds, because Brazil will have the best of the ball. No question.

So, tough one. But it’s possible. Sure. And here is what the Yanks need to do to win.

1. Score first. This seems a bit cheeky, jumping straight ahead to assuming a goal and not telling us how to create it. But that’s the start of this. Score first. The U.S. cannot chase the game against Brazil. Tt can’t. I can’t envision the U.S. overcoming a deficit. It also needs to make Brazil just a teeny bit nervous, and that will happen only by scoring first.

1A. OK, some specifics. Carefully, at selected moments, emulate Egypt (which scored three on Brazil) by running right at the middle of the Brazil defense. Donovan and Dempsey can do this, with Altidore and Clark at the other end to help finish. But it must be a cleverly timed counter, when Brazil has been dispossessed with at least one of its wide backs up the field on an overlapping run and the U.S. can attack at something like 4-on-4 or 3-on-3.

1B. The corollary to scoring first — don’t give up an early goal. There will be no “settling in” period against Brazil. Those guys will be looking for the back of the net from kickoff, and to think you can knock it around for 10 minutes … well, don’t do that.

2. Stay compact and organized. The eight in the back have to stay focused and remain alert. And no slacking. Any foray, serious or easily broken up, has to end with all the midfielders (this means you, Clint Dempsey) sprinting back to defend. This will require discipline and, thank goodness, most of the Yanks have this in spadefuls.

3. No silly fouls. Not the kind that lead to Game Over red cards against the world’s elite (five reds in four matches against Italy, Brazil and Spain, going back to 2006) or even the kind that lead to advantageous restarts. Such as Michael Bradley’s grabbing the shoulder of Ramires that led to a successful flop, a restart by Maicon and a goal, in the first matchup. You are not going to win late tackles against a technically superior Brazil team. If you’re late, just wait. (Just made that up. Bob Bradley can pass it on to the lads, if he’d like.) If it means a half-dozen consecutive Brazil touches before an honest-to-good shot at a takeaway, well so be it. Better that than to have a Brazilian standing over a restart just outside the box. Or an American trudging off the pitch in shame after a red.

4. Avoid giving up corners. It was forgivable, almost, to allow 19 (!) corners to Spain. Because Spain is not a great set-piece team. It is a fairly small crew, and a lot of those 19 corners turned into short pass-ins with minimal danger. But against Brazil, which is as big in the back as the U.S. is and, all of a sudden, even better in the air, 19 corners will mean four or five goals. I know you will feel pressure just to get rid of the ball, but it at all possible, boot it out over the side, not the back.

5. Defend straight up. Yes, Kaka and Robinho and Ramires are going to seem to call for a swarm of defenders. But not until they are inside the box. These guys pass too well, especially Kaka, and to overcommit to them is like double-teaming Magic Johnson. All it means is that someone else is going to score. Easily.

6. Don’t get greedy. Brazil will come forward. You bet. There will be turnovers, missed shots. Some will seem more interesting than they really are. Don’t counter in full on every change of possession. This is not Mexico. Take the split second to glance up the field and get a sense of what kind of numbers or opportunities are realistic. If they are not in the U.S. favor, carry the ball out or make the short, safe pass to someone in midfield — who can carry it out for a few seconds, draw Brazil back but allow the U.S. back eight to reassemble with no problem. Greed means getting overstretched too often, and running too hard too often — and that means goals by Brazil.

7. Try not to be intimidated. Yes, Spain was ranked No. 1 in the world, but the Americans know this is Brazil. And Brazil is always Brazil, not just Brazil for a year or two, like Spain just was. Bigger, faster than Spain, with a sort of in-bred confidence that doesn’t yield to dark fantasies easily prompted (that the Spanish seem prone to, historically). The sort of confidence that will have Brazil thinking “3-0” before the Selecao even takes the pitch.

8. Be lucky. Can you arrange that? No? Sacrifice a chicken or something. Still no? But you will need to be lucky. A couple of Brazil shots hitting the frame but not going in. A ball hitting a bump and eluding a Brazilian and falling onto an American foot. A ball rolling for the corner and going out for a throw-in and not a corner. When you’re playing Brazil, some luck is required.  I suppose the only way you can make a little bit of luck is by working like the devil. But at least a little of this is mental, too. Napoleon, the story goes, asked prospective staff officers only one question: “Are you lucky?” That is, if you believe you are lucky, you are more likely to have luck come your way. Just decide fortune loves you. Until it proves otherwise.

So, there. Good luck, lads. It’s only the Confederations Cup, but it’s still the biggest final in U.S. national soccer history. A victory in it would be massive, in terms of world recognition, in terms of world ranking and, most importantly, in obtaining a favorable draw for the World Cup next year. (The difference between maybe, possibly, being in Pool A for organizing purposes, rather than Pool B or even, with a loss today, and a few more in qualifying, in Pool C.

It is not reasonable for a coherent soccer onlooker to predict a U.S. victory. It’s possible. But it’s not the way to bet.