Mexico fans are probably gloating a little. El Tri is representing North America at the Confederations Cup, the quadrennial continental championships, in Brazil, a nice little tournament that doubles as a test run for the host country a year ahead of the World Cup.

Four years ago, it was the U.S. national soccer team at the Confederations Cup, in South Africa, which turned out to generate the greatest week-or-so of elation ever known by U.S. fans. That would be halftime of the championship game, when the Yanks held a 2-0 lead over Brazil. After having shocked Spain 2-0 in the semis, ending their 35-game unbeaten international run. After having beaten Egypt 3-0 in the last group game to slip into the semis.

For the 15 minutes of halftime (U.S. 2, Brazil 0!), in the championship game, Americans fans were allowed to dream that the U.S. soccer program had somehow leap-frogged to rank with one of the top dozen teams in the world. And then Brazil came back to win 3-2.

Still, a great moment. (And if you want to read my running commentary on the game, from four years ago, here it is in all its glory.)

It seems, however, as if this 2013 Confederations Cup thing may not work out as well for Mexico.

It is not the tournament itself that could be the problem. Yes, Mexico lost a game to Italy tonight, but no shame in that.

What may be a bigger problem for Mexico is the sense, from a distance, that they are being distracted from what matters most: Qualifying for the 2014 World Cup.

Six games through the hexagonal, as we in North America like to call the final qualifying group of six, Mexico has won only once. With five draws.

Mexico has three goals in six games. It has suffered four scoreless draws, three of them in Azteca, where they formerly never lost — nor even tied, in Concacaf play. After three matches at Azteca, Mexico should have nine points, bare minimum. It has eight, three of them from a road victory over Jamaica.

The standings, at the moment: U.S. on 10 points, Costa Rica and Mexico with 8 (the Ticos second on goal-differential), Honduras with 7, Panama with 6. If the latter two can win in the U.S. and Costa Rica on Tuesday, that will be four teams ahead of Mexico.

The significance of that?

The top three finishers go directly to Brazil 2014. The No. 4 team gets a home-and-away with New Zealand, champion of Oceania and eminently beatable. But you have to finish fourth, and Mexico has not inspired any confidence so far.

El Tri have been singularly uninspired, and despite the assurances of the Mexican football federation that coach Jose Manuel de la Torre‘s job is safe, you get the feeling that the federation feared screwing with the team ahead of the Confederations Cup. The upheaval might have led to a demoralized, confused team.

Thus, instead of replacing the guy who (so far) couldn’t beat the U.S., Costa Rica and Jamaica in Azteca, Mexico is still screwing around with a coach who can’t get his team to score goals perhaps, in part, because he has a personal feud with Carlos Vela — a forward who in the past two seasons has scored 26 goals in 73 matches with Real Sociedad, which just finished fourth in La Liga and will play in the Champions League this coming season.

Thus, the Confederations Cup does not look like the tuneup/scouting mission/stiff competition that so clearly benefitted the U.S. four years ago.

Instead it looks like a month where Mexico soccer leaders are paralyzed with indecision, probably waiting to see if De la Torre beats anybody good. Like say Brazil, on Wednesday.

By then, Mexico could be sitting fifth in the hexagonal.

If it works out that way … this trip to Brazil has not helped Mexico in the least, and the federation will be living in terror that they will not be able to qualify out of the easiest continental competition out there.

Considering Mexico is the highest-ranked team in Concacaf, and has the strongest league, by far … that would be a PR disaster for Mexico’s football leaders.