It was Nikita Khruschev, former premier of the Soviet Union, who is credited with saying, “We will bury you!” to a group of Western ambassadors, in 1956.
The idea being that the Soviet system — communism, in general — would out-perform the Western democracies and, eventually, “win” them over to socialism.
Well, that burial didn’t work out. The Soviet Union ended up on “the ash heap of history,” as Ronald Reagan predicted.
But another burial, one at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, very well could happen.
I have a sense that China not only is going to win more gold medals than anybody else (that is, the Americans) … China is going to win more medals of any color.
And it isn’t going to be close.
China has put together a Soviet/East German style sports machine, and we know how formidable those guys were, back when they had it goin’ on. The 1970s and 1980s, in particular.
Identify athletes at impossibly young ages, send them to sports academies, afford them no lives outside sports (to an even greater degree than do the worst Sports Parents in the U.S.), give them absolute support … and watch the Olympics medals roll in.
And an advantage China has that the Soviets and East Germans didn’t? A population of 1.3 billion people.
China has been climbing the medals table steadily since its first Olympics, in 1984, and the country might have passed the U.S. at the 2008 Games no matter where they were held.
But putting them in Beijing gives China the home-country advantage that nearly always makes a difference of 25-30 percent in additional medals. (See: Korea, 1988; Australia, 2000; etc.)
Take a sports machine, playing at home, and take into account an American team that (so far) appears overrated and just flat noncompetitive in several sports …
And this thing could be a blowout. Thinking maybe 55-40 in gold (with Michael Phelps by himself accounting for about a quarter of the U.S. total), maybe 120-100 in overall medals.
The U.S. is supposed to be ahead, early, because swimming provides such a big chunk of our medals. But three days into the swim meet (and the Olympics), and we’re at only three gold and 12 overall … and China is at eight and 13.
OK, sure, maybe we’re not supposed to notice, and just celebrate outstanding performances. But I grew up during the Cold War. It dominated most of the first four decades of my life.
And keeping score at the Olympics is something I do. (Actually, it’s something the U.S. Olympic Committee does, too, though they won’t admit it.) You just want to finish first, you know? Especially if the other guys are trying to connect their sports success to some unpleasant political system.
I’m bracing for a really ugly final score.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Eugene Fields // Aug 11, 2008 at 11:31 AM
Have I been asleep or did all the swim events have their finals today (Monday 8/11)
Yes, China probably will win more medals than anyone else – the numbers can/will account for that – No not the 1.3 billion pool of available talent – the numbers that China (as the host country) gets to enter –
As the host country, China doesn’t have to qualify for any sport – and can enter as many as it wants.
And as far as the US looking “noncompetitive” – I know it’s your opinion (and your blog) – but we’re watching two different Olympics.
The women’s gymnasts and women’s soccer team do look over-matched, but aside the men’s beach volleyball team, I wouldn’t say that about anyone else who has competed thus far.
2 cindy // Aug 11, 2008 at 5:21 PM
The reasoning “the host country doesn’t have to qualify” doesn’t hold water when you consider if the athletes weren’t qualified to win they’d have lost in the early heats/rounds etc. That’s not the case with the Chinese athletes. They are making noise, in the pool — powerhouse American women’s water polo team by the slimmest of margins gets by the Chinese — a team with no one over 21 on it — in fencing, in synch diving, in swimming. But I agree, I don’t think it has to do ALL with the 1.3 billion, although a large pool to draw from certainly helps, I believe it has to do with athletics being still so new to the Chinese. To most of the rest of the world athletics is rather tarnished. Every other day in the U.S. it seems as if an athlete is either getting caught for DUI, being drugs or alcohol, cheating, raping, beating up someone or even murder. Athletics is old hat and simply winning the gold isn’t good enough for most of us, we want pure domination. Katie Hoff won silver and bronze and is considered a failure. In China, I’m sure she would be considered a hero. Americans are desensitized by the Olympics where as for the Chinese it’s brand new and exciting.
3 Chuck Hickey // Aug 12, 2008 at 6:11 PM
I wonder if there’s some rampant cheating going on.
All this talk of fake fireworks, getting rid of a girl from singing at the Ceremonies because she was deemed too ugly, spending $40 billion on the Games …
What’s not to say tons and tons of money haven’t been thrown into developing can’t-catch drugs that the Chinese athletes are doped up on and it’s enhancing their performances, all in the name of dominating their home Games.
The sports machine might be like that of the old East Germans and Soviets, but those Cold War countries had a lot of help from their chemists, too.
4 George Alfano // Aug 14, 2008 at 8:55 AM
There probably is cheating, but I’m sure it isn’t just the Chinese doing it.
Lets be honest here – if the US dominates in track, wins the gold in basketball, and wins the gold or silver in baseball, how many Americans would really be upset at not finishing first in the medal count. We would just rationalize that the Chinese had the home and chemical advantage, which is pretty close to accurate.
5 Josh // Aug 14, 2008 at 12:24 PM
Chuck: We dope more than anybody. Please look at the MLB athletes. Is Marian Jones one of us? What about Landis? In any rate, we are at the pinnacle of dope and cheat. Is Michael Phelps a cheat? Is Lance Armstrong aided by drug? All these are unanswered questions. I am sure that they are quite suspicious.
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