Noticed this the other day. While studying the list of 32 qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.
An enormous swath of territory, extending from eastern Europe across nearly the breadth of Asia has … zero … teams in the World Cup.
From the eastern borders of Slovakia and Serbia and Greece … to the border of North Korea, the continent of Asia is shut out.
And FIFA can’t be happy about that, if we assume that it believes every region on the planet would like to have at least one or two countries from their neighborhood in the finals. To root for … to root against … just someone to bring the event a bit closer to home.
Didn’t work out this time. Not for the 90 percent of the contiguous bulk of this population-dense area.
How did this happen?
–In part, it is bad luck.
Russia, Ukraine and Bahrain were on the edge of qualification. Each was in a home-and-home playoff for one of the 32 berths, playoffs in which it was the favorite. Each stumbled in the second half of the playoff.
–In part it reflects bad planning on the part of FIFA.
Soccer’s organizing body allowed Australia to shift from the Oceania qualifying group into the Asian qualifying group. The Australians took a look at Asian soccer and decided — quite accurately — that their chances of getting to South Africa via one of the four guaranteed Asia berths were much better than winning Oceania (which essentially means beating New Zealand) and getting the region’s half-berth — and surviving a home-and-home roulette with Asia’s No. 5 finisher.
That doesn’t mean FIFA should have allowed the Aussies to move. Anyone paying attention knew that the Aussies were a strong threat to qualify out of Asia, and that Oceania without Australia is a one-country “region” named New Zealand.
Australia rolled right through Asian qualifying, not losing in eight matches (6-0-2) of final group play, and poof! there went one of Asia’s four berths — to a country usually considered a continent of its own and not part of Asia.
–Some of it is the sheer weakness and/or incompetence of soccer federations in the massively populated Asian continent.
China plays lots of soccer, but its federation is corrupt and incompetent. India also has a horrible federation and doesn’t play much soccer, anyway. Pakistan is a soccer nonentity and doesn’t seem to mind. Ditto, Bangladesh. Indonesia is hardly better. None of those five countries reached even the final 10 in “Asian” qualifying.
Iran usually is competent, but it fell two points short of qualifying outright. Saudi Arabia lost to Bahrain in the fifth-place playoff, and then Bahrain lost to New Zealand. There goes the Arabian Peninsula.
And that leaves Asia represented by Japan, the two Koreas … and Australia. Three countries on the edge of the continent, and one on another continent entirely. And seven time zones from Slovakia to Korea, with no World Cup teams.
So, from Turkey and the Middle East, from Poland, Romania … through all the “stans”, across Mother Russia, through China and Mongolia, across Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, and across Indochina and over to the Philippines … a chunk of territory that probably holds something like two-thirds of the world population … it’s World Cup armageddon.
For soccer fans there, the 2010 World Cup will be about watching teams from the rest of the world. (Unless they feel kinship with the Koreas or Japan).
Meanwhile, Europe has 13 teams, Africa has six, South America has five, North American has three and even little Oceania has one.
I believe we can be fairly certain FIFA would prefer that an Iran and a Russia or China, and maybe an Arabian Peninsula team were in the World Cup. They are not.
Maybe this won’t happen again any time soon. FIFA has to be hoping so.
1 response so far ↓
1 Dennis Pope // Nov 28, 2009 at 7:16 PM
Great bit of analysis. I think Oceania should be given a half-berth if Australia remains in Asia permanantly. That team would then play a fifth-place Asia team. A little more fair, maybe.
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