I don’t know how big this story is back in the U.S.  Talked about, I imagine, out there … but not exactly something that has the country agog. Something along the lines of “all politics are local.”

However things are, back in the States … in this part of the world, the Egypt story is huge. Everyone here is watching, both in fascination … but also out of a sense of personal investment.

I have a feeling that both governments and the governed are studying Egypt to see what it might mean for them. As rulers. As citizens. As expatriates.

Are lessons to be found here? About autocracy, and the consent of the governed, and entrenched power? Or is what is going on there somehow specific to Egpyt?

The rapt attention paid would seem, to me, to indicate that  people here believe that what happens in Egypt may well be applicable to local situations. From North Africa right through the Middle East to the tips of the Arabian Peninsula and up and through Iraq and Kuwait and even Iran.

What sort of social compact is acceptable? What notice must rulers take of the ruled? What role does religion play? And is democracy really “all that” or is it just setting the stage for a slide into chaos and a new autocrat — but only after lots of suffering?

These are the questions being asked over here. Some people are fine with the status quo, and depending on your geography “most people” might be happy with the status quo.

This story has been going on for almost three weeks now, but after Hosni Mubarak seemed to reverse field last night and declined to step down after a day of hints that he would do just that (and, in one report, take refuge in Dubai), the sense now is that Something Definitive will happen today.

And it quite likely will happen in the next few hours. Remember, Friday is the start of the weekend in the Arab/Muslim world, and after Friday prayers (equivalent to church on Sunday) is when The People are most likely to take to the streets. That will happen at about 3 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi, at about 3 a.m. in California.

If demonstrators attempt to do what some say they have planned — storm the presidential palace — this could all be over very soon. For good or for ill, and definitions of each, from Morocco to Tehran, depend on your vantage point.