The World Cup intrigue begins earlier than ever. In this case, the pot distribution revealed today, ahead of the draw on Friday, was a source of some controversy.

Well, it was in England, anyway.

What it shows for fans of the U.S. national team is that the Yanks are likely to be in a tough group and it’s mostly a question of “ridiculously tough” or “we-have-a-fighting-chance tough”.

First, let’s look at the pots, then we will assess the teams the U.S. 1) will hope to avoid and 2) secretly would like to play.

Pot 1 is the seven highest-ranked teams in last month’s Fifa rankings — Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay, Switzerland — plus the hosts, Brazil. Astonishingly, Brazil was ranked No. 11 at the time , mostly because it did not have to qualify.

Pot 2 is the five African teams — Algeria, Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast and Nigeria — plus the two South America teams not seeded — Chile and Ecuador — and one of the nine unseeded European teams, a team to be selected randomly just ahead of the draw. Meaning it could be a team as scary as Italy or The Netherlands.

Pot 3 is the four North American teams — the U.S., Mexico, Costa Rica and Honduras — plus the four Asia teams — Australia, Iran, Japan and South Korea.

Pot 4 is the nine Euros, minus whichever country is randomly shunted up to Pot 2 just ahead of the draw, and the nine are: Bosnia, Croatia, England, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia.

As mentioned here a few weeks ago, 24 of the 32 teams in this World Cup were also in the 2010 World Cup, so most everyone has recent experience on the biggest stage. And Bosnia is the only side making its World Cup debut.

If we go by current world rankings Asia’s four teams rank among the six weakest sides in the tournament. Iran is 45, Japan is 48, South Korea 54 and Australia 59 (the lowest-ranked qualifier).

Three of the four Concacaf teams rank ahead of all of the Asians. The U.S. is 14, Mexico is 20, Costa Rica is 31 and Honduras is 47, ahead of all Asia aside from Iran.

The problem for the U.S. at Brazil 2014 is that they are in the same pot as the Asia teams. It makes some sense to do it that way (four plus four; tidy), but what it means for the Yanks or Mexico is that they cannot get a shot at an Asia team sooner than the round of 16 — if any of them survive that long.

Coaches never say these sorts  of things, but I’m confident that Jurgen Klinsmann would have been happy to take a chance against any of the four Asians, and particularly Australia, which plays rather like the U.S. except with less skill and athleticism.

So, the weakest region that the U.S. can hope to be matched with is Africa, in Pot 2, and they are not all that weak. Ivory Coast is 17, Ghana 24, Algeria 26, Nigeria 36 and Cameroon 51. Thus, four of the five are ranked ahead of all the Asians and, from the U.S. perspective, African teams are never easy. Ghana has pretty much overwhelmed the Yanks with speed and strength in the past two World Cups, and Ivory Coast is very much like them.

OK, then. What would be the worst-case scenario for the U.S. in the World Cup draw?

That’s fairly easy: Brazil (at home? are you kidding?), Ghana (owns us) and Italy (sure to finish in the top two, whatever it takes).

The easiest group?

That would comprise Colombia, Algeria and Bosnia. The first hasn’t played in a World Cup since 2002 and hasn’t survived the group stage since 1990; the U.S. defeated a wholly unspectacular Algeria in the World Cup four years ago; and Bosnia is the newby in the tournament.

Let’s make this broader.

Which teams would be worse (or better) than others to be with from the other three pots?

From Pot 1, in addition to Brazil you do not want to be in a group with Spain, Germany or Argentina; those four are for sure getting out of their groups. Uruguay would be better avoided, playing in South America. But Belgium is a little green and Switzerland is less than awe-inspiring, and we already mentioned Colombia.

From Pot 2, Ivory Coast is best avoided, and Nigeria, too (in addition to Ghana), as bad matchups for the Yanks, but both are erratic enough to steal a point from. Ecuador could be trouble in an Amazon (hot) venue but is beatable in clement weather. Chile can be had, and Cameroon seems a bit disorganized and Algeria just doesn’t have much talent. We don’t yet know who the eighth team here will be.

From Pot 4, in addition to Italy, the Netherlands is a team you don’t want to see. But the rest? All are beatable, including England, which finished behind the U.S. in group play in 2010. (In a really telling moment for the U.S. national team, and perhaps England’s, too; the same England story linked above said a “worst-case scenario for England is that they are moved to Pot 2 and drawn against Brazil or Argentina as well as Italy and the United States”.)

Hmm. Four years ago, the English media were ecstatic to get the Yanks in their group.

Perhaps the most beatable (after Bosnia) would be Croatia, which struggled to oust Iceland from the Uefa playoff round, or Greece, which has a lot of trouble scoring and is old, too. And Portugal is not far from being a one-man team — though that one man, Cristiano Ronaldo, is very, very good.

So, now we wait. Brazil 2014 will not be easy for the Yanks, and it may be very hard.