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Two World Cup Qualifiers of Great Personal Interest

March 28th, 2016 · No Comments · Abu Dhabi, Fifa, Football, France, London 2012, soccer, World Cup

Of great interest to me, anyway. And this may be one of the more bizarre pairings among global soccer fans.

Two of the three world countries with “United” in its name, and neither is the United Kingdom.

–The United Arab Emirates, home to Saudi Arabia.

–The United States, home to Guatemala.

Both are tomorrow. The UAE-Saudi match at 7 p.m. Abu Dhabi time (4 p.m. in France, 5 a.m. in Los Angeles). And the U.S. match, at 7:25 p.m. in Columbus, Ohio (1:25 a.m. Wednesday, in France).

Both games are quite important for the two national teams I know best.

First, the UAE v Saudi Arabia.

I paid very close attention to the Emirati national team during my six years in Abu Dhabi. I know the coach — Mahdi Ali — fairly well and I have seen all the significant national team members play dozens and dozens of times.

I know how big this game is there, and how nervous the UAE football community is that their “golden generation” team will go out at the second-to-last hurdle, which is not how anyone saw this playing out.

The UAE is second in Group A of Asian qualifying. Saudi Arabia is first, three points ahead. A UAE victory — and the Emiratis don’t often beat the Saudis — would likely win the group for the top-seeded UAE, via goal differential.

A wild card in all this? Saudi has clinched a place among the 12 nations who will play in the final round of qualifying. Even with a defeat they are in.

Meanwhile, the UAE could finish second and still advance. But if it loses to the Saudis the Emiratis may not have enough points to finish among the four top second-place teams in the eight groups — which is required to move forward, along with the eight group winners.

The UAE got a rough go when the draw was made (as can be seen by comparing Group A to the rest), and likely would have had much less trouble in another division. But nothing can be done about that now.

The key talking point, I think, is Saudi’s accession to the final round, and it being already secure. Does that make Saudi back off a bit, against their strong regional ally, the UAE? Or does it make the whole team feel confident and loose and they just go out and play and fear nothing?

The UAE will play hard, regardless, because they do not know what they need to accomplish to finish among the top four, and even with some matches kicking off hours before them, not everything will be clear.

The current second-place standings are here … and it would appear the UAE is in pretty good shape if it can draw versus the Saudis, though they still could slip out if enough things go wrong.

Of the four second-place teams not currently in the top half … Iraq is home against Vietnam and likely will win, and would pass a UAE side which lost. Oman is away to Iran, and Iran should win, even though it has effectively clinched the top place in its group. And China is home to Qatar, and the hosts have an advantage because Qatar have already clinched first place.

In short, the UAE needs to win to be certain of advancing and then we’re back to … the Saudis always give them trouble.

The U.S. is in a different place, but it also is in danger.

The Americans are playing a side they had not lost to since 1988 — until last Thursday, when Guatemala beat them 2-0 on a pair of early goals and a whole lot of U.S. dysfunction.

The Yanks need to finish in the top two of a less-than-awe-inspiring group to advance to the hexagonal … but at the moment they are third. If Jurgen Klinsmann’s team does not win, it will lose control of its own destiny and very possibly will fall out of the Russia 2018 World Cup picture.

That would be the biggest disaster to befall U.S. soccer in Concacaf qualifying since … well, pretty much forever, considering that before 1990 it was just assumed the U.S. could not qualify for the World Cup.

OK, since 1985, when the U.S. lost 1-0 to Costa Rica in Torrance, California (the excitable Greek Alkis Panagoulias was the coach), to fall out of contention for Mexico 1986. The U.S. has played in the seven World Cup finals since then.

Two matches, two World Cup campaigns on the line. One, a national team I covered in four World Cups, one the national side I covered in the 2012 Olympics and which is, perhaps, even more familiar to me than the current U.S. team.

Tomorrow, I will be watching both teams with great interest.

 

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