Forgive me if I have been slow to acknowledge this.
Twenty-nine years since the Los Angeles Dodgers’ most recent championship … since the last time the club played in a World Series, actually … well, the club’s history-scarred fans cannot be expected to immediately climb back on the Big Blue bandwagon.
The Dodgers are moving inexorably to the front of the line in the longest since a championship statistic, now behind only Cleveland (1948), Pittsburgh (1979), Baltimore (1983), Detroit (1984) and the New York Mets (1986), among teams that have been in existence since 1961.
The Dodgers move up another three slots when we make it “longest wait since appearing” in a World Series — with the Indians, Tigers, Mets dropping behind them.
But nine victories in succession, 15 out of 16, and there the Dodgers are at 50 victories on June 24, in only 76 games, on pace to win 107 — which has never happened in the history of the franchise.
(The Dodgers haven’t won 100 since since 1974, when they got to 102. The club record for victories is 105, set in 154 games, in 1953.)
So, is this the year the Dodgers finally get to the World Series? Maybe even win it?
Well …
They have a chance.
It would take a significant reversal of form for the Dodgers to finish outside the playoffs positions; they hold an 11-game lead over the National League’s sixth-best team, the Chicago Cubs.
But the Dodgers have had many chances, over the past couple of decades; they have been in the playoffs 10 times since 1995 and the past four seasons in succession.
As close as they have gotten to the World Series? Taking a 2-1 lead over the Cubs in the National League Championship Series last year, before the Cubs took the next three games.
The club’s issues generally have fallen on the pitching side. Not enough of it … and Clayton Kershaw’s strange lack of success in the playoffs.
For any of that to change, the club needs Kershaw to have a postseason more like what Madison Bumgarner gave the Giants in 2014 … and they need at least two of their three injury-prone veteran starters to come through, too.
At the moment, Alex Wood has better numbers than Kershaw; Wood is 8-0 with an ERA of 1.86; Kershaw is 11-2 with a 2.47. Kershaw has given up 17 home runs in 109.1 innings; Wood has allowed two in 67.2.
But Wood has thrown fewer innings because he missed time with an injury. Which is a meme in the seasons of Wood, Rich Hill and Brandon McCarthy. Hill missed five starts at the start of the season; McCarthy missed two weeks in early May. Each has long histories of arm trouble.
None of these guys is Don Drysdale or Fernando Valenzuela, in terms of taking the ball and going deep in every game.
And if a couple of those guys have arm trouble in October, the club might be forced to use Kenta Maeda and/or Hyun-Jin Ryu … who have not been nearly as impressive.
And Mexican left-hander Julio Urias? The top pitching prospect in baseball, only a year ago? He was promoted in late April, was roughed up regularly, looked like a guy with a bad arm and now is out, perhaps till the 2019 season, as he waits to have delicate shoulder surgery.
(From espn.com: News: Urias will undergo left anterior capsule surgery on his pitching shoulder on Tuesday. (Fri Jun 23)
Spin: Anterior capsule surgery is one of the most difficult arm surgeries for a pitcher to recover from. Pitchers who have required the procedure in the past have required as many as 18 months to fully recover. Even in the best case scenario, Urias won’t be returning to the mound until 2018, and it’s entirely possible he will miss a significant chunk of next season as well.
So.
The club has a finisher in Kenley Jansen, maybe the best in the game, and Pedro Baez has emerged as an excellent eighth-inning man (with 10 holds), but who throws the seventh isn’t quite sure — and with all the fragile starters, the club often is into the bullpen by the sixth inning.
Still and all, the Dodgers have allowed the fewest runs in baseball, 262 (3.4 per game), 28 fewer than the next-best club. More than 140 fewer than the Orioles have allowed.
The Dodgers have an exciting hitting team, but not the one they expected. A year ago, it was based around Justin Turner and Adrian Gonzalez, and both have been hurt, and Gonzalez has done very little hitting.
The club has been led by Cody Bellinger, with 22 home runs in only 56 games and 210 at-bats, and when Gonzalez, with his one homer, is ready to come back he will not push Bellinger out of the lineup.
Another pleasant surprise is Chris Taylor, a late bloomer at 26 who turns out to be a Swiss army knife — useful for many functions, including any outfield or infield position. He also is hitting — nine homers, 32 RBI, 36 runs in 59 games.
The 2016 rookie of the year, shortstop Corey Seager, was having an even better season but may be out for a while with a hamstring injury. Yasiel Puig has done well lately, which always comes as a surprise; Yasmani Grandal has pop, for a catcher; Joc Pederson is back from injury … and it looks like the club has enough to win.
But the playoffs are 86 games and three months away, and all sorts of things may have changed before they get to October.
What is really different about this team so far is how flexible it has been, how much depth it has, how many guys have come up from Triple A and made a difference, and how many of them have taken on leading roles.
Management will get credit for that … if the Dodgers can win a World Series for the first time since Reagan’s second term.
If the club wins, Dodgers fans might be excused for channeling Jack Buck and shouting: “I don’t believe what I just saw!”
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